NOAA predicts another active hurricane season, 13 to 20 named storms
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today released its updated predictions and forecasters predict another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season but does not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.
The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through Nov. 30. For 2021, forecasters predict a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (meaning winds are 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected.
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
The predictions are in line with Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research forecast it released in April.
According to CSU, here are the probabilities for at least one major hurricane, meaning Category 3, 4 or 5, to reach landfall in the following coastal areas:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline – 69%
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 45%
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville
“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said in a news release.
“The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator.
NOAA will update its Atlantic seasonal outlook in August, before the peak hurricane season of August, September and October takes place.
While Orlando is in the center of the state there could still be an impact. Walt Disney World closed its parks for two days in 2017 as Hurricane Irma blasted through the state. The resorts remained open for the thousands of guests who were riding out the storm. Irma passed over Disney World with 90 mph gusts. No major damage was reported by Disney, but there were tree limbs strewn all around.
Reason for the prediction
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently in the neutral phase, with the possibility of the return of La Nina later in the hurricane season. “ENSO-neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be additional factors in this year’s overall activity, he said.
Storm names
Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms had been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center. They are now maintained and updated through a strict procedure by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization.
There are six lists used in a rotation and re-cycled every six years. So the 2021 list will be used again in 2027. The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name for a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity.
Here is a look at this year’s names. And, yes Disney fans there is an Ana and Elsa. Marvel fans will find a Peter and a Wanda.
