Updated 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for average activity
The forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has improved and is now believed to only be an average season, according to the Colorado State University hurricane researchers.
The team had originally predicted a slightly above average season, but North Atlantic Information obtained through May 2018 indicates the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity near the median 1981-2010 season, according to the researchers’ findings.
The hurricane season kicks off June 1 and will last through Nov. 30.
While the researchers do not anticipate a significant El Niño, the water temperatures of the tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal. An El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form. Cooler water temperature does not give storms the energy to help form the hurricanes.
“We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” the report states.
The forecasters estimate there will be an additional six hurricanes this year, 13 named storms and two major hurricanes, which is considered Category 3, 4, and 5.
The probabilities for at least one major category hurricane making landfall on each the following coast areas:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline – 51 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 30 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 29 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)
- The Caribbean – 41 percent (average for last century is 42 percent)
The hurricanes caused all of the theme parks in the Orlando area to close down for a few days. Walt Disney World closed all of its parks for two days.
Hurricane Harvey slammed into Texas causing major flooding in Houston. And Hurricane Maria tore through the eastern Caribbean causing major devastation to Puerto Rico which is still struggling to recover.
The team bases its forecasts on over 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
For those coming to Walt Disney World during the summer here is Disney’s official hurricane policy. While the parks might close during a major hurricane the resort hotels all remain open for guests.
