2018 hurricane season predicted to be more active than usual

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be slightly above average with a 39 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast, including Florida, according to the Colorado State University hurricane researchers.

One of the reasons for the above average prediction is that there is a low likelihood of a significant El Niño. An El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

The CSU team predicts there will be 14 named storms during the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, 2018. They expect seven of the hurricanes to reach major strength Category 3, 4 or 5 with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

Last year was one of the worst hurricane seasons in modern history with 10 hurricanes, including six major ones. Hurricane Irma reached 180 mph over the Caribbean before slicing through the Florida peninsula. The storm caused 44 deaths and millions in damage.

The hurricanes caused all of the theme parks in the Orlando area to close down for a few days. Walt Disney World closed all of its parks for two days.

Hurricane Harvey slammed into Texas causing major flooding in Houston. And Hurricane Maria tore through the eastern Caribbean causing major devastation to Puerto Rico which is still struggling to recover.

The team bases its forecasts on over 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.

Updates to the forecast will be made by the team on May 31, July 2 and Aug. 2.

For those coming to Walt Disney World during the summer here is Disney’s official hurricane policy. While the parks might close during a major hurricane the resort hotels all remain open for guests.