Highest-ever 2024 hurricane forecast, what it means for a Disney vacation
Colorado State University’s hurricane researchers are forecasting an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, with the potential for 11 hurricanes. They cite unprecedented warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic as a key factor.
According to the CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team, warmer-than-normal conditions in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic weaken subtropical highs and associated winds, creating favorable conditions for hurricane formation. Additionally, the transition from El Niño to La Niña in the tropical Pacific is expected to decrease wind shear, further enhancing the likelihood of hurricanes
This year’s forecast of 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes is the highest April prediction ever issued by CSU. The hurricane season normally lasts from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Historical data indicates similarities between the 2024 season and previous active hurricane years like 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020.
The CSU team’s predictions are based on statistical models and information from various international weather agencies. They anticipate hurricane activity to be approximately 170% of the average season from 1991 to 2020, compared to 120% in 2023, which saw Hurricane Idalia as its most significant storm.
2024 Hurricane Forecast Landfall Projections
The probability of a major hurricane landfall this year is much higher than the average. The percentages are as follows:
- 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
- 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is
21%). - 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
- 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
The CSU team’s forecast serves as an estimation rather than an exact measure of hurricane activity, urging vigilance among coastal residents.
Disney World Vacation and Hurricanes
Due to its inland location, the Orlando area—home to Walt Disney World—is a common evacuation destination during hurricanes threatening Florida. By the time hurricanes reach the area, their intensity typically decreases. However, while damage and flooding may still occur, they are typically less severe compared to coastal regions.
Disney World’s hurricane policy is very good (here’s the policy). If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area—or for your place of residence—within 7 days of your scheduled arrival date, you may reschedule or cancel your Walt Disney Travel Company Disney Resort hotel packages and most room only reservations (booked directly with Disney) without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney. Most room-only and vacation packages can be modified or canceled online, including changes to travel dates, according to Walt Disney World.
All major buildings, including the resorts, are built to withstand at least a mid- to high-level Category 3 hurricane. If you happen to be staying on the resort during a hurricane, you will find that the resorts will offer meal kit service for when you might be asked to remain in your hotel room; there are normally special activities for children and special meet and greets from character to help pass the time. The theme parks have been closed in recent years for no more than a day or so as the storm passes over and cleanup takes place. Do not expect any special tickets to replace theme park tickets, that is not part of the deal.
