CSU predicts slightly below-average 2023 hurricane season
The first forecast of the 2023 hurricane season is out by Colorado State University and researchers are predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, citing the likely development of El Niño as a primary factor.
This is the 40th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued an Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. The forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season – not an exact measure.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers expect six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength which would be a 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The landfall probability are as follows:
- 44% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880-2020 is 43 percent)
- 22% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula
- 28 % for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville
- 49% for the Caribbean
There is considerable uncertainty as to how strong El Niño would be if it does develop. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. The increased upper-level winds result in vertical wind shear which can tear apart hurricanes as they try to form. The team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal.
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 1, the first day of the season, July 6 and August 3.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season – not an exact measure.
