2025 above average hurricane season predicted: What Disney World visitors need to know

Get ready for another potentially busy Atlantic hurricane season. Researchers at Colorado State University released their initial forecast for 2025 hurricane season on April 3, predicting above-average storm activity fueled by exceptionally warm ocean waters and the unlikelihood of a hurricane-suppressing El Niño pattern.   

The influential forecast, now in its 42nd year, calls for 17 named storms during the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Of those, the CSU team predicts nine will strengthen into hurricanes, with four potentially reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or greater).   

This predicted activity level is about 125% of the average season observed between 1991 and 2020.  

The primary driver behind the forecast is the widespread, above-average warmth across the subtropical eastern Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. “A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water,” the report states. These warm waters also lead to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable environment, conditions ripe for hurricane formation.   

Forecasters also anticipate atmospheric conditions will be more favorable for storms. While currently experiencing weak La Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific is expected to transition to neutral conditions. Critically, the development of El Niño – a pattern that typically hinders Atlantic hurricane formation by increasing upper-level winds (wind shear) – is considered unlikely, with only a 13% probability according to the latest NOAA outlook. The absence of this suppressive wind shear further points towards a more active season.

“So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU and lead author of the report. However, he cautioned about early-season forecast uncertainty. “Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive… the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”   

The forecast also includes probabilities for major hurricane landfalls, which are higher than the long-term average:

• U.S. Coastline: 51% (average is 43%)
• U.S. East Coast (incl. Florida peninsula): 26% (average is 21%)
• Gulf Coast (Florida panhandle to Brownsville, TX): 33% (average is 27%)   
• Caribbean: 56% (average is 47%)

While forecasts provide a valuable outlook, researchers emphasize they are not exact measures. “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” warned Professor Michael Bell, urging coastal residents to take proper precautions regardless of the seasonal forecast.

Planning a Disney World Trip During Hurricane Season

Visiting Walt Disney World during the Atlantic hurricane season (officially June 1 to Nov. 30) requires extra awareness. It’s essential for travelers, especially during the peak summer and fall months, to monitor weather forecasts closely both before and during their trip.

The Orlando area, home to Walt Disney World, is situated inland in Central Florida. Historically, this location means it often serves as a refuge for coastal residents evacuating from direct hurricane landfall. Storms typically lose some intensity by the time they reach the Orlando region. However, this does not mean the area is immune to impacts. Even weakening storms can bring significant threats, including torrential rainfall leading to localized flooding, damaging high winds, and the potential for tornadoes. Therefore, visitors should still be prepared for severe weather conditions if a tropical system approaches.

Safety and Preparedness at Disney World

Despite the potential for severe weather, Disney World is widely regarded as one of the safer locations to be should a hurricane impact Central Florida. The resort’s infrastructure is designed to withstand high winds. Furthermore, Disney World often experiences fewer power outages compared to surrounding areas due to its electrcal supply.

In the event that the theme parks need to close for safety, Disney typically implements procedures to care for guests staying at its resort hotels. Many resorts may offer special entertainment, activities, and character meet-and-greets indoors, and ensure food and beverage options remain available for guests.

Historical Hurricane Closures at Disney World

While relatively rare, there have been instances where hurricanes or tropical storms have forced Disney World theme parks to close fully or partially for guest and Cast Member safety. (Note: This list includes closures; instances where parks only had delayed openings are not listed).

• Hurricane Floyd: Early closure on Sept. 14, 1999, partial day closure on Sept. 15
• Hurricane Charley: Early closure on Aug. 13, 2004
• Hurricane Frances: Closed on Sept. 4-5, 2004
• Hurricane Jeanne: Closed on Sept. 26, 2004
• Hurricane Matthew: Early closure on Oct. 6, 2016, remained closed on Oct. 7
• Hurricane Irma: Early closure on Sep. 9, 2017, remained closed on Sep. 10-11
• Hurricane Dorian: Early closure on Sept. 3, 2019
• Hurricane Ian: Closed Sep. 28-29, 2022
• Hurricane Nicole: Closed early Nov. 9 through mid-day Nov. 10, 2022
• Hurricane Milton: Closed beginning Oct. 9 through Oct. 10, 2024

Disney World’s Official Hurricane Policy

Understanding Walt Disney World’s hurricane policy is crucial for peace of mind when booking during this season. According to Disney:

If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center specifically for the Orlando area—or for your place of residence—within 7 days of your scheduled arrival date, you may be permitted to reschedule or cancel your Walt Disney Travel Company vacation package and most room-only hotel reservations without incurring Disney-imposed cancellation or change fees.

This policy generally applies to reservations booked directly with Disney. Most eligible room-only and vacation packages can typically be modified or cancelled online, including making changes to travel dates.

For the most current and detailed information, guests should consult Walt Disney World’s official FAQ regarding their Hurricane Policy, which can usually be found on their website. Being informed about forecasts and policies allows visitors to make the best decisions for their travel plans.