How clear will Disney World’s future look after D23 Fan Event?

When Josh D’Amaro, chairman of Disney Experiences,  takes the stage next month at D23: The Ultimate Disney Fan Event he will be met with high expectations from Walt Disney World fans. 

Two years ago, Disney gave what many considered lip service as to the future growth of Disney World by presenting many “Blue Sky” ideas. These represented an array of ideas from Disney’s Imagineers. At the time it sounded more like they were throwing ideas against a wall to see what would stick (which might work when cooking spaghetti, but when spending tens of millions of dollars on a project?).

This year, when D’Amaro stands before the crowd, he will present what’s on the horizon for Disney World and Disney Experiences around the globe. As a big fan, I hope this means that the Blue Sky of possibilities has become clearer. I want specifics.

D23 this week announced that Horizons: Disney Experiences Showcase, what Expo-goers know as the “parks and experiences panel,” will take place Saturday, Aug. 10, at the Honda Center. There, D’Amaro “will welcome fans as he takes the stage with surprise stars and special guests for a live celebration of the music and creativity that power our stories and — of course — news and updates about projects in development around the world. The future is bright for Disney Experiences and this can’t-miss showcase will show fans what’s on the horizon and beyond,” according to Disney.

There is a lot riding on these announcements, especially for Disney World.  And that’s just not from a fan spouting frustration, although that is a good reason. 

Disney World is facing a few realities:

First, in 2025, crosstown rival Universal is opening a new theme park called Epic Universe with immersive-looking lands. Based on the previews Universe has shared, this new park won’t feel like you are walking around warehouses filled with rides. Each of these lands will be themed as Disney World’s Pandora, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and Toy Story Land. The lands at Universal will include fan-favorite franchises such as How To Train Your Dragon, another Harry Potter land, a Super Nintendo World and a Dark Universe area featuring Universal’s monsters. The attractions they have announced include not only the hard-core rollercoasters Universal is known for, but family-friendly rides and dark rides as well.

Second, Disney World is suffering from the end of “revenge travel.” After being stuck in their homes during the pandemic, people traveled with a vengeance for a couple of years after Disney World reopened during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the perfect destination for restless families who were not allowed to travel to Europe, or even to Disneyland in California. In their most recent earnings call, Disney executives acknowledged that the post-Covid travel bubble seems to have burst.

Third, there are no celebrations announced for Disney World. Normally, Disney has had marketing campaigns that focused on some sort of “celebration.” Sometimes it is a major anniversary (the 50th anniversary of Disney World or Mickey Mouse’s birthday) other times it creates a celebration (“A Year of a Million Dreams,” “What Will You Celebrate,” “Let the Memories Begin,” “Limited Time Magic”). The last celebration focused on the Walt Disney Co.’s 100 years of existence, which seemed more focused on selling merchandise than providing experiences in the parks. As of now, there is nothing new on the horizon.

Fourth, Disney CEO Bob Iger is on record saying that the Walt Disney Company intends to invest $17 billion in Walt Disney World over the next 10 years. That money could be poured into anything and everything—new attractions, lands, new resorts (including DVC), improved infrastructure, etc. For some perspective on the cost of new lands, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge is reported to have cost $1 billion for each location (one at Disney World and one at Disneyland), and Pandora—World of Avatar is reported to have cost $500 million.

As investors and shareholders well know, the parks and experiences division of the company is always profitable and has been the bedrock for the company since the pandemic as movies and streaming divisions still struggle. This is one part of the business that can not be taken for granted and even analysts have acknowledged there is a need for investment and to keep the company stable. 

So, what will this horizon look like? The graphic released with the announcement of this session only shows castles and some iconic buildings. 

We know there is a plan for something “Beyond Big Thunder Mountain”—some land or lands on the other side of the the roller coaster at Magic Kingdom. We also know Disney is planning to turn Dinoland at Animal Kingdom into an “Tropical Americas” area with an Indiana Jones ride replacing Dinosaur and an additional Encanto-themed attraction.

The hope is that as we get closer to the horizon things will come into focus. However, even that doesn’t mean these projects will come to fruition as promised. 

Each time Disney announces a major new project, it shoots for the moon. And each time, it scales back its ambitions before opening day. Sometimes, it’s done to save money; sometimes, there are physical limitations, and sometimes, there’s a black swan event, like the pandemic.

When Disney first announced that there would be a Star Wars land, the company promised an array of new shows and character experiences, most of which either never came to fruition or ended up behind the massive paywall that was the now-defunct Star Wars hotel. Disney also once promised a Broadway-style theater for Magic Kingdom that was never built, apparently because the Magic Kingdom infrastructure couldn’t support it. And we’re still salty about the scaled-back reimagining of Epcot, much of which was scuttled by the pandemic. 

This isn’t new. Even the original Horizons ride at EPCOT underwent changes before opening on Oct. 1, 1983. According to reports, prior to the start of construction, the project’s budget was slashed by $10 million. The building size was reduced, and the length of the ride was shrunk by 35%, shortening it by 600 feet.

Also, we know that some projects might take three years to complete. In the past Disney has made announcements of a new section being built with general ideas of attractions. Then make more announcements of the rides down the road.

All we know is that we need to keep looking to the future. As we scan the horizon, the future is a vast expanse where possibility and illusion blur. Only by venturing closer can we discern reality from a mirage.