Tropical Storm Ian growing, but Florida track remains uncertain

Tropical Storm Ian is expected to make a gradual turn to the northwest later today as the cyclone passes well southwest of Jamaica, but “once the cyclone emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the spread in the track guidance increases” and we are still a day or two away to see where the storm will impact Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The models of where the storm will go are still wide apart. The HWRF and GFS still lie on the western side of the guidance envelope and show Ian moving over the central or western Florida panhandle, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show a track farther east into west-central Florida, which still could impact the Walt Disney World area.

There is still significant uncertainty in the long-range track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the forecast will likely be required.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea appear very conducive for significant strengthening, according to to the National Hurricane Center.

Once Ian becomes more organized, the high oceanic heat content and low vertical shear conditions appear likely to support rapid intensification. Ian is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Monday, and is forecast to reach major hurricane strength before it reaches western Cuba.