Pros and cons of planning a Disney World trip for 2021

I know you’re stir crazy. I know you’re dying to book a trip to Disney World. But is the time right?  

The pandemic isn’t over. In most of the country, the coronavirus is still spreading fast, and there are months of suffering ahead. But beyond that, we have a good chance of getting back to normal later in 2021. So is it time to put a trip in the books? 

As I see it, there are pros and cons, and a lot depends on when you want to travel. Everyone’s risk tolerance is different, and everyone’s priorities are different when it comes to what they want to get out of a vacation. 

If we didn’t live here, I would be planning a trip for December 2021, with several things in mind: 

• The Christmas holidays are my favorite time of year in the Disney parks. 
• If the vaccine rollout goes well, we’ve been told things should be approaching some degree of normal by the end of next year, so that seems reasonably safe.
• If things aren’t getting back to normal by then, I will be murderously stir-crazy. 
• If I land in jail for murdering someone (totally justifiably!) before I can take a vacation, Disney has been very generous with its cancellation policies, so I can feel pretty secure about that.

Are you thinking about planning a trip in 2021? Here are the pros and cons as I see them: 

Pros

• Disney feels safe: We’ve been visiting the parks pretty regularly since they reopened in July, and they feel safer than a trip to the grocery store, for the most part. Masks are enforced. You spend a lot of time outside, and you do have the power to avoid crowded areas or indoor areas, depending on your own tolerance levels. Most of the restaurants are reliably spaced out. We’ve talked with cast members who have told us that they have had very few cases of Covid, and none linked to the parks (although it is hardly in the best interest of the business to do exhaustive contact tracing, so it seems impossible to know). The parks certainly have been more crowded recently, and Disney has moved ahead with filling every row of certain rides, where they used to leave empty rows between parties. I’m certainly looking forward to smaller January crowds. 

• The 50th anniversary: Even a pandemic can’t change the calendar. Oct. 1 will be the 50th anniversary of the Magic Kingdom, and while the celebration might not be what Disney originally had planned, it’s sure to be memorable. We had expected an array of new attractions to be ready in time for Oct. 1, including the hotly anticipated Tron Lightcycle Run at the Magic Kingdom. The timing for Tron, and basically everything else, is now in doubt. But don’t doubt that Disney will pull some magic out of its hat. If I were a betting person, I would put money on Disney throwing an extended birthday party starting in September and lasting until sometime after the Magic Kingdom’s 51st birthday in 2022. 
• Flexibility: Disney has been quite generous in its cancellation policies since March, when it abruptly closed its Florida resort. While its policies are starting to tighten up, I would expect Disney to work with any guests who have a change of heart. So if you’re planning ahead, you can do it with a degree of confidence. 
• It’s good for your emotional health: Seriously, having something to look forward to — having hope — is good for you! It doesn’t have to be next month. It can be six months or a year from now; it’s still good for your mental health to have something to look forward to. 

Cons

1. Masks. If you don’t want to wear a mask, this may be your deal-breaker. Even if things are largely back to normal by the end of the year, we don’t expect Disney to do away with its mask requirement lightly. 
2. No dining plan, and no FastPasses: Park hopping is back (as of Jan. 1), but there is no sign as yet of when these two standards of Disney World travel planning will return. That means paying as you go for meals, and standing in line for rides. While you won’t see a 5-hour wait for Flights of Passage these days, there are plenty of rides you’ll wait 60-90 minutes for, depending on the day. Without both of these, you can expect to be flying by the seat of your pants a bit more than usual.   
3. A lot of uncertainty. Most of the cons in my mental list fall into this category, because we really can’t know how fast the pandemic will recede, and how Disney will handle the “return to normal.” Just a few of my questions: 

• How fast will Disney bring back normal capacity, fireworks, parades, meet-and-greets, the remaining resorts, and everything else?
• Will pent-up demand lead to an unpleasant level of crowds, especially in the old off-season? 
• Will things be better by spring break? Summer? The Magic Kingdom’s big anniversary in October? When you’re choosing a date to plan travel, it’s hard to guess at anything much before the end of the year.  
• When will all the promised new additions to the parks open? Even the new Ratatouille ride in Epcot looks complete but shows no signs of opening — beyond “coming in 2021.”