NOAA predicts ‘extremely active’ hurricane season, up to 25 named storms

Atmospheric conditions are primed to fuel storm development and could bring an “extremely active” hurricane season, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in its August update.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already seen nine named storms so far, historically only two named storms are formed by early August. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).

The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7-11 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms to date. 

This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. “This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. 

“We’ve never forecast up to 25 storms,” Bell said in a telephone briefing about the new forecast. “So this is the first time.”

The previous high was the maximum 21 storms that were predicted in 2005.

Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. These conditions are expected to continue for the next several months.

Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify. 

NOAA officials want to remind all that the forecast is for activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

The remaining storm names for the 2020 season are:

• Josephine 
• Kyle 
• Laura 
• Marco 
• Nana 
• Omar 
• Paulette 
• Rene 
• Sally 
• Teddy 
• Vicky 
• Wilfred